Chicago Economists Produce a Paper on How War in Iraq Helps Save Iraqi Lives

Steven J. Davis, Kevin M. Murphy, and Robert H. Topel, three famous economics professors in the University of Chicago, publish a working paper on how war in Iraq may help save Iraqi lives. It is part of their ongoing academic project studying how to deal with “tyrants, rogue states and terrorists who threaten not only their own people but also others.”

Their analysis indicates that war and forcible regime change will yield large improvements in the economic well-being of most Iraqis relative to their prospects under the containment policy, and that the Iraqi death toll would likely be greater under containment.

This conclusion follows from some basic observations. First, the Iraqi economy was in terrible condition before the war, and it would have remained in a sorry state under the policy of containment. Second, the regime of Saddam Hussein was an economic failure of tremendous proportions. The available evidence suggests that real income per capita fell dramatically as a consequence of Saddam’s misrule.

They emphasize that: “Had containment remained in effect, the historical record suggests that premature Iraqi deaths would have continued indefinitely at a significant rate per year.”

Note: Professor Joseph Stiglitz disagrees with them and argues that the costs of war in Iraq could well exceed two trillion US Dollars, if U.S. troops are maintained in Iraq through the duration of the conflict.